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Posts tagged with "United States"

Apple, America, and the Loss of U.S. Jobs

For everyone who doesn’t understand why companies move jobs overseas (hint: It’s not just the wages). And for those who don’t understand why the government can’t do anything about those jobs.

I’ve worked in international trade so much, I don’t even really see where the questions come from. It’s pretty self-evident when one looks at the actual facts and numbers. We do not have the production base with the technically skilled workers needed for such large-scale production. We’re on the wrong end of the supply-chain. We have a different mentality on mobility, work ethics, and needs.

That, in no way, suggests the Chinese model is better as a value judgement. Just more economically efficient. And it really, really, really is efficient. 

I’ve spent some time in Shenzhen when they were first building it up. Hong Kong was still the place for international trade, and the movements back and forth were cumbersome (anyone remember the cardboard border pass?). It wasn’t until Shenzhen became a free trade zone that it really blew up. Twelve lane highways connecting Shenzhen to different ports, all full of container trucks. The explosion of port facilities in Dalian, Fujian, Xiamen, etc. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Hong Kong is a ghost town, but it’s not the international trade darling it once was.

As far as the working conditions, social benefits, etc for Chinese workers, that’s not something I can decide for them. I try not to take a relativistic viewpoint, but really, this is what the US did during our Industrial Revolution. Why should we dictate what their social and employment mores are, especially when we’re in our own social economic crisis. It’s working for them, and millions are being moved out of poverty and subsistence farming from the western areas (with plenty of hardships left to warrant their own constant protests). There are things they do incredibly correct, and things they do incredibly wrong.

The other problem is that China is a very labor-intensive society. They can be, because they have the population for this. The West, especially America, is very capital (machine) intensive economy. Even if American companies moved their jobs back to the US, the first thing they’d do is find a way to automate the system. It’s about leveraging your competitive advantage. China = massive workforce with low pay. America = mechanized workforce with minimal (but still expensive) labor force.

There’s a lot more to change between our systems than some simple bumper sticker taglines. The sooner people get hip to that, the sooner we can start coming to real, workable solutions.

Apple, America, and a Squeezed Middle Class: How U.S. lost out on iPhone work.

Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas.

China Housing Bubble Has Burst

Oooh… It’s about to get interesting in China. Looks like the housing bubble there has started to burst. Developers have built up a huge inventory on unsold properties, and have started massive discounts. Prices are dropping, and they’re going to continue to drop fast. What makes this different from the US is that it’s inventory-driven, not buyer income or foreclosure driven (although some massive drops in certain areas have triggered localized credit crises). Also unlike the US, the global ramifications will be based on materials trade, not with the financial sector like US bad mortgages. 

“Real estate woes are already sending shockwaves through China’s broader economy. Chinese steel production — driven in large part by construction — is down 15 percent from June, and nearly one-third of Chinese steelmakers are now losing money. Chinese radio reports that half of all real estate agents in the southern city of Shenzhen have closed up shop. According to Centaline, more than 100 local government land auctions failed last month, and land sale revenues in Beijing are down 15 percent this year. Without them, local governments have no way to repay the heavy loans they have taken out to fund ambitious infrastructure projects, or the additional loans they will need to keep driving GDP growth next year.”

Possible good news for the US is that more raw production materials will be freed up globally for more competitive pricing. That’ll help temper our strengthening dollar with imports.

“The impact of a housing downturn would have a significant impact globally. International suppliers who have been fueling China’s construction boom — iron-ore miners in Australia and Brazil, copper miners in Chile, lumber mills in Canada and Russia, and multinational equipment makers such as Caterpillar and Komatsu — could be hard hit. Heavy losses on real estate and related lending could damage investment and consumer confidence, undermining the rising tide of Chinese demand that has been a much-needed growth engine for everything from Boeing airplanes to Volkswagen and GM automobiles to KFC and McDonald’s fast food.”

China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped - Foreign Affairs

For years analysts have warned of a looming real estate bubble in China, but the predicted downturn, the bursting of that bubble, never occurred — that is, until now. In a telling scene two months ago…

Aug 7
I’m sure there are some overseas economists snickering with Schadenfreude over S&P’s downgrade of United States debt from AAA to AA+, or claiming that this signals the end of the USD as the world reserve currency. However, this chart from The Economist shows just how difficult it would be for the rest of the world to switch from USD as their reserve currency. 
No other currency has the same volume as the USD. If everyone dumped America’s debt at once, all other AAA-rated currencies would go through the roof with interest rate hikes. The top seven AAA-rated nations would cover only half of the total US debt.
Pensions, funds, and bond projects that require only AAA rated debt may have to divest already, which would drive up interest rates (although Moody’s and Fitch have already claimed they would not downgrade the US… for now). OPEC dropping the USD as their converting currency would also cause a huge spike in interest rates. As would China dropping the USD quickly.
As the US political drama played out over a period of months, only one main entity tried to put pressure on the US government to act responsibly. The US Chamber of Commerce sided with the Tea Party and John Boehner, with their spending-cuts-only approach. Unions and the progressives sided with tax-the-rich crowd. Neither of these approaches approached compromise and balance, their rhetoric escalating the political fallout.
Ironically, it was China — of the “This is a sovereign matter, do not interfere” persuasion — which lambasted the United States in state media on Congress’ irresponsible manner of dealing with the “crisis.” Then again, China is constantly outed as keeping their currency artificially low in order to take advantage of capital inflows and pump up their export economy. And they are only rated as AA-.
So, in other words, let’s just calm down for a few, wait until Monday, and see what happens. (Although, it would be interesting if the US DOJ or Commerce Dept opened up investigations into S&P’s role in the 2008 mortgage/CDO fiasco.)

I’m sure there are some overseas economists snickering with Schadenfreude over S&P’s downgrade of United States debt from AAA to AA+, or claiming that this signals the end of the USD as the world reserve currency. However, this chart from The Economist shows just how difficult it would be for the rest of the world to switch from USD as their reserve currency. 

No other currency has the same volume as the USD. If everyone dumped America’s debt at once, all other AAA-rated currencies would go through the roof with interest rate hikes. The top seven AAA-rated nations would cover only half of the total US debt.

Pensions, funds, and bond projects that require only AAA rated debt may have to divest already, which would drive up interest rates (although Moody’s and Fitch have already claimed they would not downgrade the US… for now). OPEC dropping the USD as their converting currency would also cause a huge spike in interest rates. As would China dropping the USD quickly.

As the US political drama played out over a period of months, only one main entity tried to put pressure on the US government to act responsibly. The US Chamber of Commerce sided with the Tea Party and John Boehner, with their spending-cuts-only approach. Unions and the progressives sided with tax-the-rich crowd. Neither of these approaches approached compromise and balance, their rhetoric escalating the political fallout.

Ironically, it was China — of the “This is a sovereign matter, do not interfere” persuasion — which lambasted the United States in state media on Congress’ irresponsible manner of dealing with the “crisis.” Then again, China is constantly outed as keeping their currency artificially low in order to take advantage of capital inflows and pump up their export economy. And they are only rated as AA-.

So, in other words, let’s just calm down for a few, wait until Monday, and see what happens. (Although, it would be interesting if the US DOJ or Commerce Dept opened up investigations into S&P’s role in the 2008 mortgage/CDO fiasco.)